You had questions, and I have all the answers right here in this week’s mailbag …
From johnwinger (@johnwinger98524): What are scouts saying about the 2024 QB draft class halfway through this season? Has Drake Maye passed Caleb Williams? Is Bo Nix a legit GUY at QB or is he Mac Jones?
John, that’s a three-part question that’s actually three different questions. But we’ll work with you.
I’d say Jayden Daniels, pretty clearly, has been the top guy and maybe he’d go first if you redrafted them. The gap between him and Williams has at the very least closed, and there’d certainly be teams who, with the information now available, would take Daniels first. That said, there is a difference between Daniels, Williams and Maye that we’ve pointed out over the past few months.
Daniels started 55 games in college. He was a multi-year starter at two different schools in two different major conferences. His level of experience as a five-year starter is an anomaly of the COVID-19 era and he’s certainly benefitting from it now. Had he come out after three years—like Williams and Maye (and J.J. McCarthy, for that matter) did in 2022—he’d have been a Day 3 pick, at best. Which isn’t to denigrate Daniels. It’s just the reality of it.
That’s a contributing factor in why we can say that Williams and Maye have a chance to be really high-level pros, and Daniels already is one.
As for the Williams vs. Maye argument, Williams has a very unique skill set. In talking to some Tuesday on what’s gone wrong with him, as the Chicago Bears made their OC change, it looks like the transition from Lincoln Riley’s brand of Air Raid to the NFL has been rockier than expected. One issue with the offense was how they’re trying to move him around, and give him easier, half-field-type reads, which has robbed him a bit of his playmaking ability in shrinking the field. On straight drop–backs, he looks a little lost.
In the long run, I think Williams will be a really good quarterback. But Maye has closed the gap on him, too. And while I still think the order would be Williams and Daniels, and then Maye close behind, all three of these guys would be the first pick in 2025, without question. And that’s just based on the information we had in April. Based on the information we have now, I think all three have a chance to make it as pros. As for Nix …
From Garbage David Kromelow (@dkrom59): Do you think the Denver Broncos may have something in Bo Nix given how he’s played in recent weeks?
David, there was a third-and-6 throw against a really tough Kansas City Chiefs defense Sunday that got my attention. Denver had the ball at the Chiefs’ 30 with 1:53 left. If the Broncos don’t convert, they have a long field goal for Wil Lutz to kick (about 48 yards), and they’re giving Kansas City, holding just one timeout, the ball back with almost two minutes left and, if Lutz makes that kick, only needing a field goal. So this, at the time, looked like a game-on-the-line play.
Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo called a simulated pressure. Seven guys crowded the line, three dropped, and George Karlaftis beat tight end Adam Trautman off the right edge. Nix felt the pressure, climbed the pocket and delivered a rope, right past the linebackers who’d dropped off, to Courtland Sutton for 14 yards.
If Lutz’s kick isn’t blocked three snaps later, Nix wins at Arrowhead with that throw.
Now, of course, the kick was blocked, and that was that. But in the moment, you saw Nix calm and using his athletic ability to make a play that was both within the structure of the offense and demanded that he ad-lib with his feet and his arm. These are the sorts of things that are starting to shine through with Nix who, similar to Daniels, arrived in the NFL with a surplus of college experience (61 starts). Add to that Sean Payton’s presence, and I think optimism and excitement are warranted.
Which, when you add that to the above on the other three rookie quarterbacks playing, is pretty cool. It’s early, but without seeing McCarthy and Michael Penix Jr. (in the regular season) yet, there’s plenty of reason to think that this has a chance to be the kind of quarterback class you don’t often see.
From Chance (@ChanceBlvd): What was the reasoning behind the Las Vegas Raiders and Chicago Bears passing on Kingsbury as their OC?
Chance, those are separate questions.
The Raiders’ miss on Kliff Kingsbury was purely contractual. They’d settled on making him their offensive coordinator. But when they sat down to hammer out a deal, Vegas declined to go to a guaranteed third year on it, and Kingsbury’s camp balked. The Washington Commanders caught wind of it. Coach Dan Quinn wanted someone who’d think outside the box (Chip Kelly was high on his list, too), and bring something adaptable for players coming out of college, and Kingsbury’s offense had been a challenge for his defense, too.
So Washington moved fast, gave Kingsbury the third year, and Kingsbury, seeing not only that he’d have the extra year but also the second pick in a quarterback-rich draft, jumped.
The situation with the Bears is murkier. I know there was a feeling when Chicago interviewed Kingsbury in Los Angeles that part of the Bears’ motivation was to mine him for information on Caleb Williams, whom Kingsbury coached at USC. Kingsbury’s system also would’ve been a big change for Chicago’s players, who’d been running Luke Getsy’s West Coast scheme. And, ultimately, Matt Eberflus did hire another coordinator from that family, bringing in Shane Waldron from Seattle.
From Chris Ackley (@ChrisAckley33): Now that Justin Herbert is trending up, is he a better player than someone like Brock Purdy ROS?
Chris, I had to look up what ROS means—I think it’s “Rest of Season.”
Yeah, so I actually like the way both guys are playing, but this question is probably better for my buddy Michael Fabiano than me.
From Pierre (@JD_fan11): Was the Richardson benching really about his level of play?
Pierre, yes, 100%. In fact, it’s only about his play. If this was about the future of the franchise, I suspect Anthony Richardson would’ve been out there the past couple of weeks. And coach Shane Steichen going back to him is, ultimately, about the future. It also makes sense after Joe Flacco struggled Sunday, throwing three interceptions. So now the Indianapolis Colts can say, again, with a straight face, that Richardson might be the best answer for today.
Putting Richardson back in the lineup shows the Colts haven’t given up on him. They know the talent is there. Whether it all comes together is the question. This isn’t unlike Trey Lance’s situation a couple of years ago with the San Francisco 49ers. In that one, Lance just needed to play, but very clearly was not the best option for the team at the moment. And with a contending team, Kyle Shanahan couldn’t afford to roll Lance out there in 2023 to satisfy what the team had sunk into developing him, especially after Brock Purdy emerged as a viable option.
Richardson, like Lance, needs the reps. So how do you get him the work he needs when it’s not the best thing for the team? That’s the challenge. And in a weird way, the way Flacco played against the Buffalo Bills allowed the Colts to work around it. But very clearly, Richardson isn’t on scholarship anymore—he’ll have to keep earning his opportunities.
From Logan Franz (@LivingLikeLogan): You’re good at finding silver linings. Can we get some hopefulness about the situation in Chicago right now?
Ha, Logan, I’m not sure many people around me would call me a silver-linings guy, but I’ll do my best to give you my read on the situation.
That roster is not bereft of talent. The Keenan Allen trade might’ve been a swing and miss, but DJ Moore is still a nice piece for the offense, and will be even better if Rome Odunze evolves into a true No. 1 receiver (since Moore is more of a dangerous-with-the-ball-in-his-hands weapon than one who’ll beat corners with route running). A shaky offensive line still has potential, and talented tackles in Braxton Jones and Darnell Wright. And I think the defense is really good.
So, if I’m you, the easiest way to look at the bright side here is to see it this way—either Eberflus crushes it, and fulfills the promise the team showed pre-Hail Mary, or this becomes perhaps the most attractive job in 2025.
From Beissola (@batista_CesarH): Oh Albert...Since it’s Groundhog Day in Chicago.. again. With all of these interviews for the OC job that Eberlfus did and choosing Waldron, only to be fired 10 weeks later, do you see a scenario where Eberflus is safe? And can Kevin Warren trust Poles?
Beissola, I think Eberflus’s security is probably tied to Thomas Brown taking the OC baton and running with it. I’m not sure just getting to level ground with Williams and finishing around .500 would be enough. Fair or not, the optics of the two OCs fired in-season thus far this year—Waldron and Luke Getsy in Vegas—are the two OC hires that Eberflus has made as head coach in Chicago. So ownership may be hesitant to trust him to make another one, making Brown his ticket out of this mess.
So that’s the scenario where Eberflus, a good man and good football coach, makes it. And I’m not sure, one or the other, whether GM Ryan Poles is tethered to Eberflus. That may well ride on what the McCaskeys are looking for in their next coach, and, as you alluded to, Kevin Warren’s desire to get his own people in there (he inherited Poles and Eberflus).
From Jim D. (@dool_75): Who would you consider as the top choice for Woody Johnson’s Jets, similar to how Leon Hess hired Parcells?
Jim, my feeling is the New York Jets need someone who’ll come in and be able to change the entire culture of that building. Ownership, for better or worse, has impacted every level. There’s a feeling in that place that Woody Johnson’s natural volatility is exacerbated by the amount of nonfootball people he listens to and, worse, his sensitivity to what’s said on the internet (and social media, specifically).
Whether he agrees with that characterization, the perception exists with people who work there now, and have worked there in previous regimes. So he can either swear it’s not rooted in truth, or try and fix it.
Fixing it, again, would mean finding a strong voice to lead the entire operation. The first name that came to mind was Jim Harbaugh—the Jets were actually the first NFL team to interview Harbaugh for a head-coaching job, all the way back in 2009—but they’re obviously a year too late on that. I had the Nick Saban thought here, but I can’t imagine he’d do it, and I don’t know that an older coach would be a fit.
So, to me, Mike Vrabel would be the one. The Jets did their research on the former Patriots linebacker back in late 2017, before deciding to hang on to Todd Bowles for ’18. And he’s one guy I’d look at and say, Yes, he could come in there and do it his way and change the place. Because that, more than some offensive mind or whatever, is what the Jets need.
From Richman_1717 (@Richman_1717): With Coach Harbaugh changing the culture for the Chargers, bringing consistency week to week, what do you think their ceiling is for this season?
Richman, I love what Jim Harbaugh’s accomplished thus far with the Los Angeles Chargers—who are now 6–3, and playing his brand of football, with the quarterback operating in a controlled environment, the run game giving the offense its foundation and the defense balling out.
So the next step here is to look at the schedule. I said before the season that I thought the Chargers would get to around nine wins in Harbaugh’s first year. They only need to go 3–4 the rest of the way to get there. They have the Cincinnati Bengals this week and the Baltimore Ravens a week from Monday, and those, obviously, can’t be chalked up as wins. But after that, it’s pretty manageable, albeit with a Sunday nighter at Arrowhead on Dec. 8.
I’d say there’s a world where they can go 5–2 the rest of the way, but 4–3 or 3–4 is probably more realistic. Which puts them in the nine-to-11-win range. That, of course, represents a really nice start for Harbaugh’s program in Los Angeles.
From Z A Kretchmer (@Kret1970): With Jerry Jones continuing to say how good a coach McCarthy is, why hasn’t he extended him (ha), and what will he say when he’s fired/contract expired in January?
Z.A., there’s been a push from owners—after guys such as Kingsbury, Matt Rhule, Frank Reich and Josh McDaniels were fired with three or more years left on big-money contracts—to curtail spending on disposed football coaches. One way to do that is to stop firing guys after a year or two. Another is to not extend coaches simply to prevent a lame-duck year.
Jerry Jones has been one of the prominent voices in the room among owners on that, so there are a good amount of folks in league circles who felt like, coming into the year, he was making his point by making Mike McCarthy coach into a contract year. Whether that was his primary motivation for not extending McCarthy, coming off a third consecutive 12-win year and third consecutive playoff flameout, isn’t clear. But it does create an interesting dynamic as Cooper Rush leads the Cowboys into the back end of the season.
Jones was in this situation with Jason Garrett five years ago, and it led to a really weird coaching search, where the Cowboys hadn’t officially let Garrett go before actively looking for his replacement. I’d hope that doesn’t happen again. But it’s been a pretty weird year all the way around in Dallas, so we’ll see.
From Kent Schrag (@TheBlockO): Have the Bengals and Ja’Marr Chase talked contract since the season started? Do you think the Bengals sign him before the end of the season?
Should they? Unequivocally, yes. Do I think they will? Probably not.
Owner Mike Brown said in July that a deal with Chase was unlikely in 2024. Chase then held in through training camp. There was an effort to get a deal done right before the season started, which is how the Joe Burrow deal got done in 2023. But the sides couldn’t push a new contract over the goal line.
The Bengals generally have shut down negotiations on extensions once the season starts. I can’t say for sure whether they’ve held firm completely on that this time around, but it’s been quiet since early September. Their bye week, the point at which teams typically will make another run at extending vets, is coming after this week’s Sunday nighter against the Chargers. Whether Chase’s side is willing to engage then is an open question, of course, but keeping him is not going to get cheaper by waiting.
As it is, I don’t think Chase would be out of bounds asking for $40 million per year. Now, the bright side of this? It’s hard to envision a scenario where it doesn’t wind up getting done.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye Have Closed the Gap on Caleb Williams.