Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains.
Such were the wise words from Ebby Calvin “Nuke” LaLoosh in the 1988 classic Bull Durham. He was speaking from more of a cosmic perspective, but his sentiments fit in quite succinctly with the scheduling kerfuffle MLB faces ahead of the postseason.
This day had been marked on the content calendar all season. Monday, Sept. 30, the day after MLB’s regular season ended and the day before the playoffs began. It was prime time to bring back SI’s Playoff Power Rankings, with the field set and the deck cleared for October baseball to begin.
Hurricane Helene—and the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets, at least in part—are to blame for the current uncertainty.
At present, 10 of the 12 playoff teams are secured. The final two National League wild-card spots remain up for grabs, and will go to two of the Braves, Mets or Arizona Diamondbacks. The scenarios are simple: if Monday’s doubleheader between the Braves and Mets results in a split, then both teams advance to the postseason and the Diamondbacks are eliminated (with the Braves getting the No. 5 seed and the Mets snagging No. 6). If either Atlanta or New York sweeps the pair, then the winner is in as the No. 5 seed and Arizona gets the No. 6 seed. The American League field, thankfully, is locked in.
Even though things remain unsettled, the content calendar cares not, and the people deserve their Playoff Power Rankings. With no clear-cut favorite and no 100-win teams for the first time in a decade, this exercise had an added element of intrigue that made it all the more fun. So behold, dear reader: 13 teams still have a chance at winning the World Series. Here is how they stack up.
13. Atlanta Braves
Why they can make a run: If the Braves survive past Monday, their chances at making a deep run rest with their rotation. Chris Sale is the favorite to win the Cy Young Award, while Spencer Schwellenbach, Max Fried and Reynaldo López have all pitched well down the stretch. Teams have been increasingly less reliant on starters pitching deep into games in order to succeed in the postseason, but that doesn’t mean they wouldn’t love to be flush with options this time of year (looking at you, Dodgers).
Why they’ll make an early exit: Atlanta won a combined 205 games in 2022 and ‘23 thanks to an enviable amount of organizational depth. Even the deepest of clubs couldn’t have withstood all the star power the Braves saw land on the shelf, so the fact that they’re still in the mix is a testament to how others have stepped up as Ronald Acuña Jr., Spencer Strider, Austin Riley and more have missed significant time due to injury. But at some point, it comes down to talent, and the Braves might just not have the necessary horsepower to hang.
12. New York Mets
Why they can make a run: We’ve seen shortstop-led New York teams make deep October runs before, right? No one is comparing Francisco Lindor to Derek Jeter quite yet, but the 30-year-old just put together the finest season of his Mets career and is poised for a superstar turn in the playoffs. The team put up a 39–25 mark since the All-Star break thanks in large part to consistent returns from its starting rotation. If the Mets survive Monday and David Peterson emerges as a legitimate ace, there’s a path for something magic in Queens.
Why they’ll make an early exit: The bats have gone cold lately, with Mets hitters putting up a .227 average since the start of September. The trio of Brandon Nimmo, Harrison Bader and Starling Marte, in particular, will need to step up to provide some length to the lineup. If not, it’s hard to see New York scoring enough runs to make any real noise.
11. Arizona Diamondbacks
Why they can make a run: The Snakes won’t sneak up on anybody this time around after their run to the Fall Classic a year ago. If they get some help in the form of a sweep on Monday, they have a lineup deep enough to cause issues for any opposing pitching staff. After putting up a .635 OPS through the All-Star break, Corbin Carroll found his stride in the second half, posting a .919 OPS with 17 homers and 17 stolen bases.
Why they’ll make an early exit: Arizona rode a hot streak to the World Series last season on the strength of its patchwork bullpen, but the pieces don’t seem to be there this season. Diamondbacks relief pitchers ranked 25th in ERA this season (4.41), and the rotation was even worse, ranking 27th (4.79).
10. Detroit Tigers
Why they can make a run: Is good vibes enough of a reason? The Tigers are playing with arguably the most confidence of any contender. This group of young hitters is coalescing at the right time, and Detroit’s bullpen has been dominant down the stretch. There’s a “happy to be here” element to this team, but also a “having too good a time to stop now” feel. Having a battle-tested manager like A.J. Hinch should be a huge advantage.
Why they’ll make an early exit: For the Tigers to make the most of their first playoff run in a decade, they’ll need their non-Tarik Skubal starters to step up. Casey Mize, Reese Olson and Keider Montero haven’t exactly been lights-out lately. If they’re unable to rise to the occasion, this Cinderella run could be short-lived.
9.Kansas City Royals
Why they can make a run: Baseball is the team-iest of team sports, and few stars can do it alone. Bobby Witt Jr. is one of the exceptions, the type of talent that needs only a modicum of support to win a game. If the trio of Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans and Michael Wacha can keep being their reliable selves, Witt won’t need much more help from the offense.
Why they’ll make an early exit: About that supporting cast. Of the 16 players who made at least 100 plate appearances for the Royals this season, only three had above-average wRC+ marks: Witt (168), Salvador Pérez (115) and Vinnie Pasquantino (108). Kansas City ranks dead last in runs scored since the start of September.
8. Milwaukee Brewers
Why they can make a run: Playoff baseball is different, and the teams that can put the most pressure on their opponents hold an enormous advantage. Milwaukee does that with speed and small ball. Add in a bullpen with an NL-best 3.12 ERA, and it’s a recipe for October success.
Why they’ll make an early exit: Milwaukee’s ability to thrive without any stars in its rotation has been admirable, yet it could cost them down the road ahead. Tobias Myers, Frankie Montas, Aaron Civale and Colin Rea don’t exactly have track records of postseason success. If Freddy Peralta isn’t sharp, the outlook appears pretty bleak.
7. Baltimore Orioles
Why they can make a run: The talented O’s faded down the stretch, but perhaps that might take some of the pressure off of this young team. There are questions about the rotation, but Cade Povich and Dean Kremer finished the season strong, and Zach Eflin had a 2.60 ERA in nine starts since coming over at the trade deadline. They’ll be counted on to pitch well behind Corbin Burnes.
Why they’ll make an early exit: Too many key bats have gone quiet lately, but none more so than Adley Rutschman. The All-Star catcher hit .207/.282/.303 in the second half with just three homers in 58 games.
6. San Diego Padres
Why they can make a run: Like the Brewers, the Padres put tons of pressure on their opponents, but in a different way. San Diego boasts a deep lineup stocked with no easy outs, and constantly tests opposing defenses by putting the ball in play at a higher clip than any other team. As the old saying goes: If you want to go fast, go alone; if you want to go far, go together. The Padres’ offense looks equipped to execute the latter.
Why they’ll make an early exit: In his first season as a full-time closer, Robert Suárez has been excellent. But he has been a bit shaky as of late, allowing 10 runs with three blown saves over his last 14 appearances. San Diego has other late-inning options in Jeremiah Estrada and Tanner Scott, so it will be interesting to see how manager Mike Shildt opts to handle things if Suárez falters.
5. Cleveland Guardians
Why they can make a run: No bullpen issues in Cleveland, as the Guardians are ready to unleash their three-headed, late-inning monster. Emmanuel Clase, Hunter Gaddis and Cade Smith are as good as it gets at shortening games. A fairly deep lineup led by superstar José Ramírez is a great foundation for a Fall Classic push.
Why they’ll make an early exit: What good is a loaded back end of a bullpen if it has no leads to protect? Cleveland’s starters leave a lot to be desired, and if the team finds itself falling behind early, it sees its chief advantage neutralized before it's even able to use it.
4. Los Angeles Dodgers
Why they can make a run: Before speculating on the Dodgers’ chances, let’s all just take a moment to celebrate the fact that Shohei Ohtani, the biggest star in perhaps the history of the sport, will finally play in a postseason game. This team clearly has the talent to win it all, and if Ohtani performs like he has all season—particularly over the second half—then they will.
Why they’ll make an early exit: This one’s obvious. Los Angeles’s starting pitching options consist of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jack Flaherty, Landon Knack and Walker Buehler. Yamamoto has made four starts since coming off the injured list, none lasting more than 79 pitches. Flaherty has been solid after arriving at the trade deadline. Knack is a rookie with a 5.14 ERA in September, and Buehler is 1–6 with a 5.38 ERA.
3. Houston Astros
Why they can make a run: Too high for an 88-win team? Perhaps. But the Astros have dominated October for most of the past decade, advancing to the ALCS in each of the past seven seasons. This year’s team boasts four capable starting pitchers and a lineup that’s finally healthy. We’ve seen this movie before.
Why they’ll make an early exit: Houston’s bullpen hasn’t exactly been the most reliable this season, posting the highest walk rate (9.4%) of all the AL’s playoff teams. Closer Josh Hader has a 6.94 ERA with three blown saves over his last 12 appearances.
2. Philadelphia Phillies
Why they can make a run: After coming close the past two years, it feels like it’s time for Bryce Harper to finally win a title. If the Phillies break through, he won’t do it alone: Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, J.T. Realmuto and Trea Turner are all getting hot at the right time.
Why they’ll make an early exit: The Phillies’ top four starters are clear, but two of them—Ranger Suárez and Aaron Nola—haven’t been so sharp. Suárez has a 5.74 ERA over his last seven starts since returning from the injured list. And the normally reliable Nola had a 4.91 ERA in September, giving up seven homers in 33 innings.
1. New York Yankees
Why they can make a run: Gerrit Cole is looking like the Cole of old again, and he’s got some help in the rotation with Carlos Rodón and the return of Clarke Schmidt. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto have shown no signs of slowing down, and look poised to put on the type of tag-team act that can lead a charge to the Fall Classic.
Why they’ll make an early exit: The Yankees did well to land a much-needed extra bat at the deadline in Jazz Chisholm Jr., and Gleyber Torres has started to pick things up at the plate down the stretch. But this lineup still has a lot of issues, even more now that Anthony Rizzo will be unavailable for the ALDS. Cold stretches and too many easy outs will be the reason New York’s World Series drought stretches to 15 years.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as MLB Playoff Power Rankings: How Yankees, Dodgers, Other Contenders Stack Up.