Smart people around the NFL will tell you that the regular season starts on Thanksgiving.
At that point, there’s no more trying to figure out what works and what doesn’t. It’s time to accentuate the positive attributes, and minimize the negative.
Well, we’ve reached Thanksgiving, and the Week 13 playoff picture is heating up while the weather outside is cooling off.
With that in mind, let’s look at how things stand going into the holiday, with everything below being updated throughout the weekend.
Additionally, all playoff probabilities are courtesy of The Athletic’s model.
AFC: WHO’S IN
No. 1: Kansas City Chiefs
Record: 10–1, first place, AFC West
Remaining opponents over .500: 4
Playoff probability: 99%
The Chiefs will host the Las Vegas Raiders on Black Friday. With a win, Kansas City will clinch a playoff spot with a loss from either the Miami Dolphins or Denver Broncos.
No. 2: Buffalo Bills
Record: 9–2, first place, AFC East
Remaining opponents over .500: 1
Playoff probability: 99%
The Bills host the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday night and will clinch the AFC East with a victory and a loss by the Miami Dolphins at Green Bay on Thanksgiving night.
No. 3: Pittsburgh Steelers
Record: 8–3, first place, AFC North
Remaining opponents over .500: 3
Playoff probability: 89%
Pittsburgh is trying to hold onto the AFC North lead and perhaps expand on it, but faces the Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium on Sunday.
No. 4: Houston Texans
Record: 7–5, first place, AFC South
Remaining opponents over .500: 2
Playoff probability: 94%
After losing to the Tennessee Titans last weekend, the Texans will take on the woeful, two-win Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday.
No. 5: Baltimore Ravens
Record: 8–4, second place, AFC North
Remaining opponents over .500: 4
Playoff probability: 98%
After handling the Los Angeles Chargers, Baltimore now stays home this weekend for a game against the high-flying Philadelphia Eagles, who are riding a seven-game winning streak.
No. 6: Los Angeles Chargers
Record: 7–4, second place, AFC West
Remaining opponents over .500: 4
Playoff probability: 83%
The Chargers are on a short week after their loss to the Ravens, and now head across the country to take on the Atlanta Falcons in the early window of Sunday’s action.
No. 7: Denver Broncos
Record: 7–5, third place, AFC West
Remaining opponents over .500: 2
Playoff probability: 66%
Denver has won two straight and will be looking for a third on Monday night at home against a feisty Cleveland Browns team led by Jameis Winston.
In the Hunt
Miami Dolphins (5–6): The Dolphins are attempting to win their fourth straight and get back to .500, but it must come in frigid Green Bay against the streaking Packers.
Indianapolis Colts (5–7): After being easily handled by the Detroit Lions, the Colts will visit the three-win New England Patriots on Sunday.
Cincinnati Bengals (4–7): It might be time to win out or face almost certain elimination for Cincinnati. That chore starts with the Steelers at home on Sunday.
NFC: WHO’S IN
No. 1: Detroit Lions
Record: 10–1, first place, NFC North
Remaining opponents over .500: 3
Playoff probability: 99%
Detroit looks like the best team in the league. The Lions have another chance to prove it on Thanksgiving when they host Caleb Williams and the 4–7 Chicago Bears.
No. 2: Philadelphia Eagles
Record: 9–2, first place, NFC East
Remaining opponents over .500: 3
Playoff probability: 99%
Philadelphia has the marquee game in the late window Sunday, when the Eagles make a short trip south to take on Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry and the powerful Ravens.
No. 3: Seattle Seahawks
Record: 6–5, first place, NFC West
Remaining opponents over .500: 3
Playoff probability: 30%
Seattle is trying to hold onto its newfound lead in the NFC West. The Seahawks are going across the country for an early-window date with the New York Jets.
No. 4: Atlanta Falcons
Record: 6–5, first place, NFC South
Remaining opponents over .500: 3
Playoff probability: 78%
Atlanta is coming off its bye week and will welcome in Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh, as the Chargers make the trek to face the hosting Falcons.
No. 5: Minnesota Vikings
Record: 9–2, second place, NFC North
Remaining opponents over .500: 5
Playoff probability: 98%
Minnesota is cruising behind Sam Darnold, Kevin O’Connell and Brian Flores. This week brings another challenge, though, with the Arizona Cardinals coming to U.S. Bank Stadium.
No. 6: Green Bay Packers
Record: 8–3, third place, NFC North
Remaining opponents over .500: 3
Playoff probability: 94%
The Packers are a near lock to make the postseason. The question is whether they can track down the Lions in the NFC North. First step? Handling the warm-weather Dolphins on a cold Thanksgiving night.
No. 7: Washington Commanders
Record: 7–5, second place, NFC East
Remaining opponents over .500: 2
Playoff probability: 66%
Washington is reeling a bit after three consecutive losses, including two in the division. However, the Commanders are still in good position with the Titans coming to town.
In the hunt
Arizona Cardinals (6–5): The Cardinals lost their NFC West lead and with it, a playoff spot last week. Arizona will now try to get back into the picture with a victory in Minnesota on Sunday.
Los Angeles Rams (5–6): Los Angeles fell to the Eagles on Sunday night and will now face the New Orleans Saints at the Mercedes Superdome.
San Francisco 49ers (5–6): Beat up and coming off a blowout loss to the Packers, San Francisco travels to Buffalo for the unenviable task of trying to beat the red-hot Bills.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as 2024 NFL Playoff Picture, Week 13: Lions, Chiefs Can Solidify Top Seeds.