The NFL playoff picture is starting to shake out for both conferences. But a few spots remain open, and the competition is heavy.
In the AFC, there’s only one slot left after the Denver Broncos (9–7) lost to the Cincinnati Bengals (8–8) on Saturday. For Denver, it can clinch a playoff spot in Week 18 by beating the Kansas City Chiefs (15–1), who after securing home-field advantage with a win over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Christmas Day, will almost certainly be playing their backups.
The Miami Dolphins (8–8) also remain alive for the AFC’s seventh seed after beating the Cleveland Browns (3–13), but must win in Week 18 and get a loss from Denver next weekend. Cincinnati needs to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers (10–6) next week, and get losses from both the Dolphins and Broncos.
Meanwhile, the NFC is still in flux. The Philadelphia Eagles (13–3), Detroit Lions (13–2), Minnesota Vikings (14–2) and Green Bay Packers (11–5) are all in, but none have wrapped up seeding.
The Washington Commanders (11–5) beat the Atlanta Falcons (8–8) on Sunday night to clinch their first playoff berth since 2020, which also clinched the NFC West for the Los Angeles Rams (10–6) via a potential strength of victory tiebreaker over the Seattle Seahawks.
All gametimes next week are TBD and are yet to be determined for Saturday or Sunday
SUNDAY
Commanders 30, Falcons 24 (OT)
My take: Washington (11–5) reached the postseason on Sunday night, with Jayden Daniels’s legs leading the way. Daniels ran for 127 yards and threw for another 227 and three touchdowns, including the game-winning dart to veteran tight end Zach Ertz. For Atlanta (8–8), the loss is crushing. The Falcons now need to beat Carolina next weekend and then hope that Tampa Bay somehow falls to New Orleans. It’s a longshot at best, and likely spells doom for Atlanta in 2024.
Stock up: Daniels is incredible. Despite having multiple backup offensive linemen in front of him, Daniels was able to extend drives with his legs while amassing 354 total yards to lead the Commanders into the playoffs for the first time since 2020.
Stock down: Raheem Morris must be held to account for how regulation ended. He walked away from the fourth quarter with a timeout in his pocket while letting a ton of time elapse on the final drive. It made no sense, and it might have cost Atlanta a playoff spot.
Up Next: Panthers at Falcons; Commanders at Cowboys
Vikings 27, Packers 25
My take: Minnesota (14–2) has set up a winner-take-all situation in Week 18. The Vikings held on to beat Green Bay (11–5), continuing to give themselves control of their own destiny. For Minnesota, a win next weekend over Detroit would not only give it the NFC North title, but also home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. This will be a rematch of Week 7, which the Lions won 31–29 on a last-minute field goal. As for the Packers, they will either be the sixth or seventh seed, depending on whether they can beat out Washington.
Stock up: Sam Darnold deserves far, far more acclaim. Against Green Bay, he threw for a career-high 377 yards with three touchdowns and an interception. He outplayed Jordan Love, who threw for less than half of Darnold’s yardage with 185.
Stock down: Green Bay has invested a slew of cap space and early-round picks into its front seven, and the unit failed Sunday. The Packers only amassed one sack and four quarterback hits in defeat.
Up Next: Bears at Packers; Vikings at Lions
Eagles 41, Cowboys 7
My take: Despite having to play Tanner McKee and Kenny Pickett at quarterback, Philadelphia (13–3) clinched the NFC East and the conference’s second seed at worst. However, the only way the Eagles can earn home-field advantage is if the Lions and Vikings both lose this week, and then Philadelphia wins in Week 18 while Minnesota wins in Detroit. Regardless, the Eagles have clinched a home playoff game through the first two weeks of the postseason while Dallas (7–9) has one more game to play, hosting the Commanders. The tilt means nothing for Dallas but could impact Washington should it lose to the Falcons at home on Sunday night.
Stock up: Saquon Barkley made history, eclipsing the 2,000-yard rushing mark. By getting there, Barkley joins an elite group including Eric Dickerson, O.J. Simpson, Derrick Henry, Barry Sanders, Terrell Davis, Chris Johnson, Jamal Lewis and Adrian Peterson. Now, does Barkley play at all in Week 18 in an attempt to get the all-time mark? Dickerson set the record in 1984 with 2,105 yards.
Stock down: The Giants, who allowed Barkley to leave in large part because they gave Daniel Jones a four-year, $160 million extension. For years, Barkley languished behind a bad offensive line against stacked boxes. The first year he has in Philadelphia? Historic.
Up Next: Commanders at Cowboys; Giants at Eagles
Bills 40, Jets 14
My take: With its 13th win, Buffalo (13–3) wrapped up the AFC’s second seed. The Bills can now sit everyone in Week 18 in New England, allowing themselves a defacto bye week before hosting a wild-card game for the fifth consecutive year. As for New York (4–12), what might be the most disappointing season in franchise history continued with Aaron Rodgers throwing two more interceptions and losing a fumble. The Jets are now guaranteed a top-10 pick once again.
Stock up: Buffalo’s defense has been getting ample criticism in recent weeks, and rightfully so. However, the unit created three turnovers in the shallacking, giving some reason to believe things are straightening out before the postseason.
Stock down: Everyone with the Jets. It’s one thing to lose a game. It’s also expected on the road against Buffalo. But New York has essentially quit for weeks, showing very little fight for a team that entered the season with grand expectations. It has been a complete embarrassment.
Up Next: Dolphins at Jets; Bills at Patriots
Buccaneers 48, Panthers 14
My take: Tampa Bay (9–7) handled its business against Carolina (4–12), making sure it still has a reasonable chance to win the NFC South. In fact, the Buccaneers could be ahead in the division by nightfall, as the Falcons must beat the Commanders in prime time to remain in first place. As for the game, it was a huge day for Baker Mayfield (more below) and Mike Evans, with the veteran catching eight passes for 97 yards and two scores. For the Panthers, Bryce Young also found Adam Thielen in the end zone twice.
Stock up: How could it be anybody but Mayfield? The veteran lit up the Panthers with five touchdown passes and 359 yards in what amounted to a must-win for Tampa Bay. Mayfield now has 39 touchdown passes and more than 4,200 passing yards.
Stock down: Carolina’s offensive line continues to be a huge problem. Young is playing better football but spent much of the day avoiding hits, while still being sacked five times in defeat. The line is better than it was a year ago, but there’s still improvements to be made.
Up Next: Panthers at Falcons; Saints at Buccaneers
Dolphins 20, Browns 3
My take: Miami (8–8) went on the road without Tua Tagovailoa or Jaylen Waddle and still managed to blow Cleveland (3–13) out. With the win, the Dolphins remain in contention for the AFC’s seventh seed, but they’ll need plenty of help. Miami needs to win in Week 18 at MetLife Stadium against the Jets, and then hope the Chiefs’ backups can beat the Broncos in Denver. While that’s a longshot to happen, Mike McDaniel’s team at least has a chance entering the final weekend of the season.
Stock up: It’s impossible for Miami to have asked more of Tyler Huntley. The veteran backup went 22-of-26 for 225 yards and a touchdown while also picking up 53 yards and a score on the ground. With Tagovailoa sidelined due to a hip injury, Huntley helped the Dolphins stay alive in the AFC race.
Stock down: Dorian Thompson-Robinson might have a tough time making the roster next season. Given an opportunity to start with injuries to Jameis Winston and Deshaun Watson, Thompson-Robinson has done very little. Against Miami, he went a grotesque 24-of-47 for 170 yards with an interception.
Up Next: Dolphins at Jets; Browns at Ravens
Giants 45, Colts 33
My take: As it turns out, New York (3–13) won’t go without a home win for the entire season. The Giants not only got their first win at MetLife Stadium, they also knocked Indianapolis (7–9) out of playoff contention. Drew Lock and Malik Nabers had huge days (more below) while the defense forced three turnovers. Special teams also chipped in with a 100-yard kickoff return for a touchdown by Ihmir Smith-Marsette out of halftime, setting the stage for an explosive final 30 minutes. For the Colts, it’s a crushing loss that raises many questions about the future. The biggest is who plays under center in Week 1 next season.
Stock up: Nabers is clearly on his way to becoming a superstar. The rookie receiver went over the 1,000-yard threshold by catching seven passes for 171 yards and two touchdowns. It was an epic showing, helping New York break its 10-game losing streak.
Stock down: Every single defender on the Colts, along with defensive coordinator Gus Bradley. New York came into Sunday scoring a league-worst 14.3 points per game and then hung 45 on Indianapolis. Lock threw for 309 yards and four touchdowns. Pathetic.
Up Next: Jaguars at Colts; Giants at Eagles
Raiders 25, Saints 10
My take: After losing 10 consecutive games, Las Vegas (4–12) has suddenly won two straight. The Raiders might be hurting their draft stock but are helping their pride with victories over Jacksonville and New Orleans (5–11). From the Saints’ perspective, this isn’t doing much to help the cause of interim coach Darren Rizzi, who hasn’t been able to turn around his team’s fortunes with injuries piling up. It’ll be fascinating to see who wants the Saints’ job come January.
Stock up: Brock Bowers has had an All-Pro season, and he continued that trajectory by setting records Sunday. Bowers caught seven passes for 77 yards, breaking Mike Ditka’s record for rookie tight ends with 108 catches. It’s been a rough year for the Raiders, but a dream season for Bowers.
Stock down: New Orleans couldn’t get anything going on the ground with their backs. Spencer Rattler led the team in rushing yards with 36, while the backs combined for 35 yards on 10 carries. Without Alvin Kamara, the unit had no juice.
Up Next: Chargers at Raiders; Saints at Buccaneers
Jaguars 20, Titans 13
My take: Jacksonville (4–12) won, but really lost. By falling to the Jaguars, Tennessee (3–13) is now in a better draft position. The Titans need just about everything, so being in a spot to potentially draft ahead of a division rival could prove crucial. Of course, Doug Pederson & Co. are just happy to earn a victory, something that has been in short supply for a Jaguars team many believed would bounce back after missing the postseason in 2023.
Stock up: Brian Thomas Jr. continues to show why he’s the future in Jacksonville. The rookie first-round pick had another excellent day, catching seven passes for 91 yards and a score, giving him 1,179 yards and 10 receiving touchdowns.
Stock down: Anybody who sat through the rain in Jacksonville and paid money to do it. The decision-making might be worse than the Bears’ clock management.
Up Next: Texans at Titans; Jaguars at Colts
SATURDAY
Bengals 30, Broncos 24, OT
My take: Cincinnati (8–8) took a giant step to becoming the team that no one will want to face in the postseason after defeating Denver (9–7) in thrilling fashion. Joe Burrow had a 400-yard passing performance and outdueled rookie quarterback Bo Nix to keep the Bengals’ slim playoff hopes alive, which appeared bleak after Tee Higgins’s lost fumble in the fourth quarter and after Cade York’s missed field goal in overtime. This chaotic matchup had many highs and lows, including Nix throwing a costly interception only to make up for it with a score-tying, 25-yard touchdown pass to Marvin Mims Jr. to send the game into the extra session. The Bengals eventually put the game away with Burrow connecting with Higgins for the walk-off score. They are now only one game behind the Broncos in the standings for the seventh and final playoff spot. Plenty still needs to happen for the Bengals to advance, but football fans are closer to possibly seeing a wild-card showdown between Burrow and Josh Allen or Burrow and Lamar Jackson.
Stock up: The trio of Burrow (412 passing yards, four total touchdowns), Ja’Marr Chase (nine catches, 102 yards) and Higgins (11 catches, 131 yards, three touchdowns) stepped up to save the Bengals’ season. Higgins had a costly lost fumble, but made up for it with a clutch 31-yard reception in overtime before the game-winning, three-yard touchdown catch. The Bengals’ playoff hopes are alive and well, and no one will want to see this trio in the postseason.
Stock down: Hindsight is 20/20, but Broncos coach Sean Payton should have gone for two at the end of regulation. Nix (24-of-31, 219 yards, three touchdowns and one interception) flashed two fingers thinking Payton was going to go for the gutsy two-point conversion. The Broncos did have opportunities to win the game in overtime, but Payton is going to be thinking about the safe approach after the Nix-to-Mims connection. Now the Broncos need to beat the Chiefs in Week 18 to secure a playoff spot, which could be likely if Kansas City chooses to rest its starters after clinching the AFC’s top seed on Christmas Day.
Up Next: Bengals at Steelers, TBD time and date; Chiefs at Broncos, TBD time and date
Rams 13, Cardinals 9
My take: Los Angeles (10–6) could be starting Week 18 with the NFC West title because it handled business Saturday night against Arizona (7–9). The Rams caught a break after a Kyler Murray pass bounced off the helmet of Trey McBride and turned into an interception for Ahkello Witherspoon in the end zone during the final 37 seconds of regulation. If the strength of victory tiebreaker goes L.A.’s way after Sunday’s games, coach Sean McVay would have the option of sitting his starters for the regular-season finale against the Seahawks to prepare for a home wild-card game. Stud wideout Puka Nacua (10 catches, 129 yards) could use the day off after carrying the Rams’ offense during a sluggish outing at SoFi Stadium. Murray and the Cardinals were in position to play spoiler, but struggled to break through against the Rams’ ascending defense.
Stock up: The Rams’ defense will be a problem for opposing teams in the postseason. Los Angeles’s impressive pass rushers combined for four sacks, but no play was bigger than Witherspoon’s game-saving interception in the end zone. The Rams gave up yards to McBride (12 catches, 123 yards, one touchdown), but played stout in the red zone for most of the game.
Stock down: Murray (33-of-48, 321 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions) had another uneven performance in a season filled with disappointment. McBride took the blame for the dropped pass, but Murray deserves some blame for putting too much heat on the pass. A softer pass probably would have given the Cardinals the victory and would have made Seattle fans happy.
Up Next: Seahawks at Rams, TBD time and date; 49ers at Cardinals, TBD time and date
Chargers 40, Patriots 7
My take: Los Angeles (10–6) finally left its conservative ways thanks to the lack of pressure from New England (3–13). Justin Herbert showed off his arm throughout the game, throwing a 40-yard bomb to rookie sensation Ladd McConkey to extend the lead by 20 points in the third quarter. It was the first time this season that Herbert threw for at least three touchdowns in a game, surprising for a quarterback of Herbert's caliber. We shouldn’t get carried away about the Chargers beating up on the Patriots, but it’s clear this offense is different with J.K. Dobbins in the backfield—Dobbins returned after missing the prior four games due to a knee injury. It remains to be seen whether this Chargers offense will be enough in the postseason, but they’re always going to have a chance with Herbert on the field.
Stock up: Jim Harbaugh quickly got the Chargers into the postseason. They were a five-win team with a poor defense last season and entered 2024 with a depleted offense because tough decisions were made to repair the salary cap. Even with all of those obstacles, Harbaugh again showed why he’s the master at getting fast results as a coach. Harbaugh’s team will be dangerous in the postseason because of Herbert’s connection with McConkey and a top-10 defense thriving under defensive coordinator Jesse Minter.
Stock down: Jerod Mayo needs to prioritize both sides of the trenches once the Patriots’ season ends next week. It also remains to be seen if Mayo gets a second season as the head coach because of how poorly it went in 2024. But if he’s back, the results won’t change without better pass rushers and offensive linemen. Rookie quarterback Drake Maye is the real deal, showing that with a 36-yard touchdown to DeMario Douglas, but Maye was constantly under pressure during Saturday’s rout.
Up Next: Chargers at Raiders, TBD time and date; Bills at Patriots, TBD time and date
THURSDAY
Seahawks 6, Bears 3
My take: Both teams should burn the game tape from this ugly game that didn’t have a touchdown. The Seahawks (9–7) kept their playoff hopes alive with the victory, but if they’re in contention after the Week 17 results, this version of Geno Smith (17-of-23, 160 yards, no touchdowns) won’t get it down next week against the Rams, a matchup that could decide the NFC West. Smith struggled with accuracy and DK Metcalf (three catches, 42 yards) failed to keep his cool against the Bears (4–12). But the bigger story from this game is the latest stinker from rookie Caleb Williams, the No. 1 pick in April’s draft. Williams (16-of-28, 122 yards, no touchdowns) missed several throws and had a brutal interception to end Chicago’s comeback hopes on the final drive.
Stock up: Mike Macdonald’s defense was the lone bright spot for the Seahawks, allowing only 179 total yards and forcing the Bears to punt seven times. Leonard Williams had two of Seattle’s seven sacks against Chicago’s abysmal offensive line. The Seahawks’ defense had a bounce-back performance after back-to-back weeks of struggling against the Packers and Vikings.
Stock down: The Bears’ offensive line has hindered the team’s developmental plan for Williams, who has been sacked a league-high 67 times. Chicago could be on the wrong side of history next week if Williams ties or breaks David Carr’s record of taking 76 sacks in a season, which occurred in 2002.
Up Next: Seahawks at Rams, TBD time and date; Bears at Packers, TBD time and date
WEDNESDAY
Ravens 31, Texans 2
My take: Baltimore (11–5) took over sole possession of first place in the AFC North, shutting out the Houston (9–7) offense. Lamar Jackson (168 passing yards, 87 rushing yards, three total touchdowns) jokingly apologized to his defense for allowing the two points that occurred on a safety. C.J. Stroud (17-of-31, 185 yards, no touchdown, one interception) admitted that the Christmas performance was one of the worst games of his career. It doesn’t appear that the Texans will fix their offensive issues any time soon, possibly leading to an early playoff exit for the AFC South champions. The Ravens could have a lengthy playoff run now that the defense is playing as well as the offense.
Stock up: This is no longer the same Ravens’ secondary that was constantly getting beat downfield during the first 10 weeks of the season. Marlon Humphrey, who had an interception against Stroud, could find himself on an All-Pro team in a few weeks with how well he’s played during the second half of the season.
Stock down: Joe Mixon was the lone consistent playmaker for the Texans during the first half of the season. But he has struggled in the past three games, failing to rush for more than 57 yards against the Ravens, Chiefs and Dolphins. Mixon has 993 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns this season.
Up Next: Browns at Ravens, TBD time and date; Texans at Titans, TBD time and date
Chiefs 29, Steelers 10
My take: The Chiefs (15–1) are the best team in the NFL, a statement that hasn’t been said often this season. Once again, Kansas City is saving its best performances for when it matters most. Patrick Mahomes and his passing game have broken out of their funk, with Mahomes throwing for 320 yards and three touchdowns in Pittsburgh. As for the Steelers (10–6), they appear headed for another one-and-done postseason. Russell Wilson couldn’t get anything going against a stout Chiefs’ defense without Chris Jones, who was ruled out with a calf injury.
Stock up: Xavier Worthy could be a dangerous weapon come the postseason. The rookie first-round receiver has taken advantage of the better matchups he has seen since Hollywood Brown returned from injury in Week 16 against the Texans. Worthy recorded eight catches for 79 yards and one touchdown against the Steelers.
Stock down: Wilson’s moon shots are no longer hitting. The veteran quarterback averaged only 5.5 yards per attempt against Kansas City. Wilson rushed throws against pressure and had a killer interception in the end zone during the first half.
Up Next: Chiefs at Broncos, TBD time and date; Bengals at Steelers, TBD time and date
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as NFL Week 17 Recap: Who’s Up, Who’s Down, What’s Next for Every Team.