Good morning, I’m Dan Gartland. I hope everyone had an enjoyable holiday weekend.
In today’s SI:AM:
👑 LeBron turns 40
📸 Every LeBron SI cover
🏈 Vikings keep rolling
The Great 8 chases the Great One
One of the primary story lines of this NHL season has been Washington Capitals star Alex Ovechkin’s pursuit of Wayne Gretzky’s career goals record. Over the first month of the season, it seemed like Ovechkin was on track to breeze past Gretzky by the midpoint of the season before an injury brought the record chase to a screeching halt. But Ovechkin is healthy again and already adding to his goal total, so when might we expect him to break the record?
Ovechkin entered the season with 853 career goals, 41 behind Gretzky’s record of 894. Considering Ovechkin had scored 31 goals last season and had just turned 39, there was some real doubt as to whether he’d be able to pass Gretzky this season. But then Ovechkin started the season red-hot, scoring 15 goals in his first 18 games. On Nov. 17, he had his first hat trick in nearly two years. He added two more goals the following night to move to within 26 goals of tying Gretzky with 64 games to play.
But Ovechkin left that Nov. 18 game against the Utah Hockey Club with what the team initially described as a lower-body injury. An X-ray revealed a broken left fibula, bringing his pursuit of Gretzky’s record to a screeching halt.
Ovechkin missed 16 games before returning to the ice on Saturday. He even found the back of an empty net for his 16th goal of the season and then added another goal on Sunday on a beautiful one-timer.
That gives Ovechkin 17 goals on the season and 870 for his career. He needs 24 goals to tie Gretzky and 25 to break the record.
The question now is whether Ovi will pass Gretzky this season or if it’ll have to wait until next season. Given his torrid scoring pace this season, it may seem like a foregone conclusion that he’ll break the record before the end of April. This season he’s averaging one goal per 1.18 games played, a pace that would put him on track to pass Gretzky in February on either side of the two-week break for the 4 Nations Face-Off.
But Ovechkin’s current scoring pace is surely unsustainable. Over the course of his prolific career, he’s averaging one goal per 1.66 games played, which is a scoring pace 40% slower than what he’s done this season. His high scoring rate this season is especially out of line with what he’s done in recent years. Over the previous two seasons, Ovechkin scored a goal every 2.08 games. That’s still an impressive output—he’s one of only eight players over the age of 30 to score at least 70 goals over that span—but it shows that Ovechkin might have some trouble breaking the record this season.
If Ovechkin’s goalscoring rate regresses to something more similar to what he’s done over the past two seasons, it becomes a lot less likely that he’ll be able to pass Gretzky before the end of the season. At a rate of one goal per 2.08 games, it would take him 52 games to break the record. There are only 46 games left in the season.
There are a couple of things working against Ovechkin in his pursuit of the record. For one, he’s playing fewer minutes than he ever has. He’s averaging 17:37 of ice time, a career low and a far cry from the 20:44 he averaged over his first 19 seasons. The Caps don’t need to lean on their 39-year-old legend as heavily when young players like Aliaksei Protas and Connor McMichael are providing offensive contributions. The biggest thing, though, is the possibility that Ovechkin’s production could fall off a cliff. Through 20 games this season, 23% of his shots have found the back of the net. That isn’t a preposterous number (just the 12th highest in the NHL this season), but it’s nearly double what he has averaged over his previous 19 seasons (12.9%). The analytics suggest that players exert very little control over their shooting percentage, which makes it highly variable and subject to luck. If Ovechkin is going to pass Gretzky before the end of the season, he’s going to have to hope his good luck continues.
The best of Sports Illustrated
- Steve Rushin put a bow on 2024 by looking back on some of the most off-the-wall sports achievements of the year.
- In honor of LeBron James’s 40th birthday, Chris Mannix and Liam McKeone compiled a list of the 40 biggest moments in his career.
- James has been on the cover of Sports Illustrated more than 40 times. Here’s every last one.
- Albert Breer spoke with Vikings running back Aaron Jones after Minnesota held off a late push from the Packers to improve to 14–2.
- Conor Orr argues that Saquon Barkley should sit out the final week of the season and forget about chasing Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record.
- Pat Forde called out Miami quarterback Cam Ward for his decision to play only the first half of the Hurricanes’ bowl game.
- Alex Ovechkin’s rival, Sidney Crosby, is also breaking records.
The top five…
…things I saw yesterday:
5. Amari Cooper’s leaping touchdown catch.
4. Zach Ertz’s touchdown catch in overtime to clinch a playoff berth for the Commanders.
3. Islanders goalie Marcus Hogberg’s diving stick save.
2. Malik Nabers’s big game in the Giants’ upset win over the Colts. He had a 31-yard touchdown on a screen pass, a 59-yard touchdown where he left the defense in the dust and an amazing leaping catch for a big gain.
1. Victor Wembanyama’s ridiculous dunk. He picked up his dribble 12 feet from the basket and used his length to throw down a dunk no one else could.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as SI:AM | Where Alex Ovechkin’s Pursuit of Wayne Gretzky’s Goals Record Stands Now.