When it comes to a decision made by a billionaire, we in the business typically seem to come around to the self-serving point where we can uncover its genius. When it comes to the New England Patriots’ firing of Jerod Mayo, a coach whom Robert Kraft identified as special through various anecdotal observations during Mayo’s Patriots playing career and time on Bill Belichick’s coaching staff, set up with the worst roster in the NFL, positioned to replace one of the greatest head coaches in NFL history and fired after one season, it hinges solely on Kraft’s ability to land Mike Vrabel.
For Kraft, the only advantage in making this move now is that he did not succumb to the sunken cost fallacy and maybe that is where he stakes his position. Mayo had two major public gaffes during his time as head coach, first calling the players soft (an ironic maneuver after an offseason spent rebranding himself as the anti-hardass post-Belichick) and second by hurtling offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt under the bus, despite the fact that Van Pelt had the most injury-ravaged offensive line in the NFL (Van Pelt was also fired). While any head coach is going to make tactical errors during his first season, especially at the podium in a challenging media market, Mayo fell off the balance beam one too many times. It was unlikely to get better as the pressure mounted to develop Drake Maye after a stellar rookie season from the No. 3 pick in the draft.
From this vantage point, it can only mean that the Patriots thought they could do better; that the Patriots are doing what they truly should have done a year ago and going all-in on Vrabel, a three-time Super Bowl–winning Patriots legend. At the podium, he possesses both the finesse and the cachet to verbally fence with a throng of media, multiple newspapers and radio stations. And he is secure in his identity, not needing to develop one on the fly like Mayo had to.
Adding to the intrigue, the move would pair Vrabel for the first time with a legitimate, ascending franchise quarterback on a rookie deal. During the best of Vrabel’s years coaching the Tennessee Titans, the team relied on a Ryan Tannehill reclamation project, riding the former Miami Dolphins draft pick to the 2019 AFC championship game and the No. 1 seed in ’21.
While it would seem difficult to believe that Vrabel would take a job with the New York Jets—he interviewed there this week—the timing of the expiration of Vrabel’s Cleveland Browns consulting contract, the Jets interview, a possible dismissal of Antonio Pierce by the Tom Brady–owned Las Vegas Raiders and the expedited firing of Mayo do not feel like a happy coincidence. Rarely is anything in this Machiavellian environment.
New England will have to make the rounds in order to comply with the NFL’s hiring rules, and perhaps the interview process will also include superstar Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, a Boston College graduate assistant and tight ends coach; Liam Cohen, a former UMass quarterback; or, more likely Brian Flores, one of the few Belichick assistants who was believed to be capable of creating something unique without succumbing to B-level Belichickian cosplay; or Brian Daboll if the New York Giants were to move on from him. Of course, few of these would land with the kind of market-satiating boom as hiring Vrabel away from both the Jets and—to a lesser extent—Brady himself. It’s a narrative that could obscure the central fact that Vrabel was available a year ago.
This past year was a fascinating journey into hubris of all kinds. As the Patriots’ dynasty began to peel apart, the jockeying for credit became something of a national pastime. Docuseries, roasts, podcasts and more seemed to have the entire roster and coaching staff split off into warring factions. While the answer was always obvious—Belichick deserved credit for eschewing norms and empowering Brady, Brady deserved credit for his tireless work and preparation, and Kraft deserved credit for keeping the marriage together as long as he did—Kraft’s power move to separate from Belichick and try to underline his own legacy through the identification of Mayo as a future head coach was always a risky highwire act.
When the Patriots moved on from Brady, Belichick had the clairvoyance to install the personable Cam Newton for one season before attempting to draft a successor, understanding the difficulty that a young player would have standing in for the greatest player in NFL history.
Kraft sought no such buffer (unless Mayo himself ends up becoming one incidentally). The Patriots were obviously one of the worst teams in the NFL heading into this season and, after an aggressive offseason in which the team gleefully tried to separate from its callous, CIA past, Mayo became nothing more than a bus driver on a route to nowhere.
While what happens next will ultimately define Kraft’s tenure in the post–Brady–Belichick era, we should not forget that Mayo was billed as the candidate of his choosing. The one that summed up all of Kraft’s behind-the-scenes knowledge and his interpretation of how people connect. Hiring Vrabel would be a slam dunk but, at the same time, akin to a spiraling business paying top dollar for the hottest CEO on the market. That said, the fan base in New England would likely never forgive the owner for keeping Mayo a second season while the rival Jets hired a Patriots Hall of Famer to play them twice a year.
Back in September, Kraft, while handing over a game ball to his head coach, called himself “spoiled” after Mayo upset the Super Bowl–aspiring Cincinnati Bengals in the opener, and said that he “expected a lot more [victories].” At the time, that may have been a message to the locker room that this was no rebuild. Ultimately, it may have been a reminder to himself.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as With Jerod Mayo Fired After One Season, Robert Kraft Needs to Hire Mike Vrabel.