On Friday night, Lucy Jones didn’t feel the earthquake.
She and her husband, Egill Hauksson — both seismologists, and both exhausted — were on an evening walk to their Pasadena pharmacy to pick up prescriptions that had gone uncollected when a magnitude 6.4 earthquake struck Ridgecrest, Calif., the day before.
Jones, the hottest L.A. celebrity of the holiday weekend, needed a break from all the attention. She’d practiced her bass viola and done her best to scrub off her television makeup from the day’s NBC and ABC interviews. (Her husband joked that the smudged mascara left her looking like a football player.)
But during the stroll, her cellphone rang. It was news about a second, stronger earthquake: a magnitude 7.1 — but with a seismic intensity low enough that it could be felt in Pasadena only if one was standing still. The pair hustled the last six blocks home to pick up phones and computers, then jumped into the car. They were at the Caltech lab within 15 minutes of the tremors.
Read the full story on LATimes.com.
So the M6.4 was a foreshock. This was a M7.1 on the same fault as has been producing the Searles Valley sequence. This is part of the same sequence –
— Dr. Lucy Jones (@DrLucyJones) July 6, 2019
This is the same sequence. You know we say we 1 in 20 chance that an earthquake will be followed by something bigger? This is that 1 in 20 time
— Dr. Lucy Jones (@DrLucyJones) July 6, 2019
Like any quake, today's M7.1 has a 1 in 20 of being followed by something even bigger. Smaller quakes – M5s are likely and a M6 is quite possible.
— Dr. Lucy Jones (@DrLucyJones) July 6, 2019
Yes, we estimate that there's about a 1 in 10 chance that Searles Valley will see another M7. That is a 9 in 10 chance that tonight's M7.1 was the largest.
— Dr. Lucy Jones (@DrLucyJones) July 6, 2019
We have now recorded over 3,000 earthquakes in the Searles Valley sequence.https://t.co/mgWpqYcUzB
— Dr. Lucy Jones (@DrLucyJones) July 7, 2019
The sequence is decaying, and the decay rate is on the high side of average. So the probabilities of more aftershocks are dropping. In the next week, M4s are still certain, a couple of M5s are likely, but larger quakes are looking more improbable. https://t.co/1FlUWz3rl6
— Dr. Lucy Jones (@DrLucyJones) July 7, 2019