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Six weeks after California began re-closing swaths of the economy, there is cautious optimism that coronavirus transmission is heading downward, officials say.

If it stays that way, the state may be on the cusp of curbing its second surge of the pandemic.

The potential crest comes after Gov. Gavin Newsom’s speedy economic reopening in May and early June led to a near doubling of the weekly death toll over the spring tally. The state’s cumulative pandemic death toll is now more than 10,800, one of the worst disasters in the state’s modern history.

But there are now several signs that Newsom’s second shutdown, which began in late June and broadened in early July, is finally having its intended effect. It can take three to five weeks to start seeing the health effects of stay-at-home orders, and it has been six weeks since much of the state was required to close bars and indoor dining rooms at restaurants, an order that was expanded to the rest of the state a month ago.

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