An image of crime tape flashes across the screen. A woman says, “we don’t feel safe anymore,” adding that “crime is surging” in California. The solution, the ad paid for by a Republican group argues, is to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom.

Republicans looking to replace Newsom in next month’s election say the governor is “soft on crime” and to blame for the state’s increase in violent crime, pointing to a rise in homicides as a reason voters should approve the recall.

But researchers who study crime rates say the surge is much more complicated than the attack ads suggest, and that the causes for it likely extend well beyond the policies of one governor or even one state.

“Most cities across the United States saw increases,” said Aaron Chalfin, a professor of criminology at the University of Pennsylvania.

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