The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued a La Niña watch earlier this month, meaning that conditions are favorable for development of a La Niña in the next six months.
A La Niña typically means a dry winter across the southern United States, including Southern California.
La Niña is part of a climate phenomenon called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, often referred to as “ENSO.” It has nothing to do with the Ensos or their icy planet Ensolica in Star Wars, but La Niña is the cool phase of this climate phenomenon, and the opposite of its warm sibling, El Niño.
Between the two phases there is a neutral phase that’s neither El Niño nor La Niña — what climatologist Bill Patzert calls “La Nada.” That’s where we find ourselves at the moment — and where we expect to stay through the summer. But NOAA predicts that there’s a 50% to 55% chance of our current neutral phase shifting into a La Niña this fall and winter. Hence the watch. But there’s also a 40% to 45% chance, according to NOAA, that we will remain stuck in neutral for the fall and winter. In addition, there’s about a 5% to 10% chance of an El Niño developing.
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